Sponsor: Society of Wetland Scientists
Co-Chairs:
Dr. Jon Kusler
Institute for Wetland Policy and Research
Association of State Wetland Managers
P.O. Box 269
Berne, New York
USA 12023-9746
Phone: (518) 872-1804
Fax: (518) 872-2171
E-mail: aswmi@aol.com
and
Dr. James Patterson
c/o Suite 200, 1750 Courtwood Crescent
Ottawa, Ontario
Canada K2C 2B5
Phone: res. (613) 623-4453
Fax: res. (613) 623-0556
E-mail: jhpeco@netcom.ca
Cooperating Organizations:
Wetlands International
Association of State Wetlands Managers
United States Geological Survey
United States Environmental Protection Agency
Society of Wetland Scientists
Overview of Symposium:
This Symposium and two others (No. 1 and No. 43) concerning wetlands, atmospheric gas exchange, peatlands, and carbon be linked under the overall heading of wetlands and climate change. However, these two other symposia would retain their individual identities and their titles would continue to be listed as subtitles. This introductory session concerning wetlands and climate change would focus upon policy as well as scientific issues. We would hope to bring the audience "up to speed" with regard to wetlands and climate change issues and programs through the use of several panels and individual speeches. Participants: Wetland scientists, climate change scientists, representatives from state and local agencies and organizations, federal agency staff, not for profit staff, others interested in wetlands and climate change issues.
Symposium Goals:
1. Provide an introductory series of papers concerning wetlands and climate change which summarize both some of the existing scientific knowledge and status of policy initiatives.
2. Provide a forum for the presentation of relevant USGCRP and IPCC research findings.
3. Define and discuss multiobjective, practical ways to reduce or compensate for impacts on wetlands due to climate change (adjustment strategies) and other stresses. Emphasis would be upon federal, state, local, and private managers.
First Session
Jon Kusler, Association of State Wetland Managers, Berne, New York, USA - Wetlands and global climate change: an overview of scientific and policy issues.
Abstract is unavailable.
Ben Felzer, CCR/CGD, NCAR, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA- Regional hydrology from climate change models.
General circulation models (GCMs) are the primary tool used to project future climate change. GCM projections of the future are based upon emission scenarios of greenhouse gases and sulfur for the 21st century. Output from GCMs is often downscaled from the coarse GCM resolution to a finer resolution that has implications for hydrological processes and wetlands. Different methods of downscaling include expert judgement, delta method, empirical downscaling using statistical relationships, and regional climate modeling. Ultimately these downscaling methods depend upon GCM output to determine either the large-scale atmospheric circulation or the particular patterns of precipitation produced by the GCMs. The U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change has provided relevant examples of how GCM output should be interpreted and applied to undertake regional analyses. These examples illustrate the caveats with using GCM output for hydrological impact analysis, the relative merits of the different downscaling approaches, and the implications of these results for future wetlands in the U.S.
Melissa Taylor, United States Global Change Research Program - Climate change scenarios: indications for large scale ecological change.
Abstract is unavailable.
Brett Orlando, IUCN-The World Conservation Union, Washington, D.C. USA and co-author to be designated, Ramsar Convention - Wetlands and climate change, IUCN and Ramsar perspectives.
Abstract is unavailable.
Lisa Sorenson, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA; R. Goldberg, M.G. Anderson, T.L. Root and C. Rosenzweig - Climate change and Prairie potholes.
The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the Northern Great Plains is the most important breeding area for waterfowl in North America. All general circulation models (GCMs) predict warming of the mid-continent region under a doubling of atmospheric CO2. Predictions of precipitation changes are less consistent, but increased moisture deficits are likely. Historically, the size of breeding duck populations in the PPR has been highly correlated with spring wetland conditions that are in turn determined by climate. We show that one indicator of climate conditions, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), is strongly correlated with duck and pothole counts for both Prairie and Parkland ecozones within the region, indicating the utility of the PDSI as an index of climatic factors important to wetlands and ducks. Sensitivity tests show that the PDSI is highly sensitive to projected temperature increases in this region and that the Parkland region may be more sensitive and vulnerable than the Prairie to increasing temperatures. Using output from 4 GCMs, we develop projections of future moisture conditions across the PPR landscape (.5°x.5° grid) for 3 time periods (2020s, 2050s, 2080s) and estimate effects on wetland and duck abundance. Three of 4 GCMs project increased drought in the coming decades with the most severe drying occurring in strata 26, 27, 35, 39, and 40 (mostly Parkland strata). We present contour maps of PDSI projections (3 time periods x 4 scenarios) for use in site-specific conservation planning. Our results suggest that significant reductions in wetland abundance and the numbers of ducks settling to breed in the Canadian PPR by the middle of the next century are likely.
Michael Anderson, Ducks Unlimited Canada, Stonewall, Manitoba, Canada - Adapting conservation in the face of uncertainty: Incorporating climate scenarios in conservation planning.
Natural resource managers routinely make decisions with inadequate information about the likely impacts of their actions. This general problem can be reduced through time with an adaptive approach to management decisions. The prospects of global climate change, however, pose especially difficult challenges for conservation planners because of the scale of the problem, the long time required to learn, and the high degree of uncertainty associated with predictions about future climatic conditions. Recently, scientist have developed plausible future climate scenarios for ecological regions of importance for conservation of North American waterbird populations, including the northern Great Plains, coastal wetlands and various interior wetlands. Most assessments predict serious negative consequences for wetlands and waterbirds during this century. The immediate challenge for conservation organizations is to judge what adaptations to future climatic conditions are prudent now in the face of great uncertainty and, secondly, what can be done to improve our understanding of the likely impacts of climate change in the near future. I will argue that actions on both adaptation and learning are overdue and achievable, and may include some unexpected opportunities.
Jeffrey Chanton, Department of Oceanography, Florida State University - The effect of sinking CO2 in wetlands soils - methane emission.
Abstract is unavailable.
Second Session
William Mitsch, Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA - Carbon sequestration, climate change and wetland restoration.
Wetlands, particularly peatlands, are peat accumulators and are thus generally carbon sinks. As newly restored or created wetlands begin to accumulate organic carbon, then they can be effective carbon sinks with a few years of their restoration or creation. As these wetlands become much more reduced, which may no occur for many years, they can become a source of CH4, a greenhouse gas. If they are located in regions where fertilizer use is high, they will accelerate the process of denitrification, with some production of N2O, another greenhouse gas. When weighting the positive effects of carbon sequestration versus the production of small amounts of methane and nitrous oxide, wetland restoration must still be considered as one of the best ecosystem alternatives for mitigating atmospheric accumulation of CO2 if done on a large scale restoration, such as has been proposed for the Midwest USA. Restored wetlands could also have the added benefit of mitigating drought conditions caused by climate shifts and could assist in minimizing the effects of floods in areas with wetter climates.
Ned Euliss, Jr. and Robert Gleason - Prairie wetlands of the United States: sources of sinks of greenhouse gases.
Abstract is unavailable.
Nigel Roulet, Geography Department, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada - Climate change and carbon balance of peatlands.
Northern peatlands contain between 200 and 450 Pg of carbon (1 Pg = 1 Gt = 1015 g). The contemporary sequestration of carbon in peatlands is believed to be between 20 and 30 g C /m2 /yr. The sink of CO2 results from net primary production (NPP) persistently exceeding the decomposition of peat and plant material. Decomposition is greatly reduced in peatlands by the presence of water and the cool temperatures common to the latitudes where most peatlands are located. Accumulation of peat continues until and equilibrium is reached. The maximum growth of a peatland is controlled by a combination of internal feedbacks and external forcings such as climate, topography, and geographic setting.
Most general circulation models (GCMs) suggest the northern regions that contain most of the world's peatlands may become significantly warmer over the next century. GCMs also indicate, but with greater uncertainty, that the mid-continental areas may be much drier, while coastal climate region may become wetter. Since both NPP and decomposition in peatlands is closely related to the moisture and thermal regime, if the predicted changes in climate occur, we would expect to see significant alterations in the carbon dynamics of peatlands. However, there are many uncertainties in magnitude and the direction of potential changes. Over the last few years there has been a consider increase in research that is attempting to better understand the carbon dynamics of northern peatlands.
This talk will summarize the recent work on carbon balance of peatlands that will be present is Symposium 44 of Wetland2000 - "The Carbon Balance of Peatlands".
Dr. Jim Patterson, Consultant, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada; Doug Chekay, Ducks Unlimited, Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada; Allen Tyrchniewicz, International Institute for Sustainable Development, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada - Conclusions and recommendations for the Wetland's International study concerning wetlands and climate change and Canadian workshops.
Following the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which provided for biological sinks as a measure to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, WI-A, IISD, DUC and NAWCC formed the Wetlands and Climate Change Consortium. The goals were to assess the degree to which wetland conservation activities were carbon sinks and/or sources, and to assess the potential of crediting conserving wetlands as carbon sinks. The Feasibility Study found that wetlands contain the largest reservoirs of carbon in the terrestrial biosphere, but can function as both sinks and/or sources depending on type and environmental conditions. The study and the Oak Hammock Wetlands and Carbon Sequestration Workshop concluded that wetland conservation and restoration in agricultural landscapes provide significant opportunities to enhance anthropogenic carbon sinks. The Consortium remains active, having prepared wetlands chapters for Canada's National Sinks Table. A Prospectus on Wetlands and Climate Change has further refined understanding of science and presents preliminary data that equates potential carbon sequestration from wetland and soil conservation in Canadian agricultural landscapes.
Panel Discussion: Perspectives (60 minutes total): Perspectives on wetlands and carbon sequestering.
Elliot Spiker (U.S. Geological Survey)
Faizal Parish
Don Adams (State University of New York)
Dennis Whigham (Smithsonian Environmental Resource Center)
